That call has not materialized in aggregate price indices, though it has found partial expression in specific submarkets where speculative off-plan buying was heaviest.
Developers are regularly adding new projects, and if they release more homes than the market can comfortably absorb, prices in certain areas may dip.
The divergence between prime and non-prime is widening.
The estimated top three Dubai neighborhoods with the fastest rising property prices are Dubai Hills Estate, DIFC, and Palm Jumeirah, all of which combine constrained supply with strong lifestyle or investment appeal, with approximate annual price growth ranging from 12% to 18%.
That premium is being sustained by genuine scarcity, not momentum buying.
The demand side retains structural support.
Dubai's population surpassed 4 million in 2025, and conservative estimates suggest a further 175,000 to 225,000 residents could be added in 2026, with sustained population growth continuing to underpin both housing demand and rental absorption, particularly in established communities.
Investors see average yields of about 7%, which stands out when compared to cities like London or New York.
That yield differential continues to attract capital from South Asia, Europe, and the broader GCC, and it is the single most durable argument for sustained transaction activity even as price appreciation slows.
Abu Dhabi real estate price trends are running on a different trajectory, and the divergence is instructive.
Abu Dhabi's real estate market recorded AED 142 billion in total transactions in 2025, a 44% increase year-over-year and the emirate's strongest performance on record.
Residential unit sales reached AED 76.1 billion across 23,600 transactions, up 67% in value and 55% in volume, with off-plan activity dominating at 71% of residential deals and 87% of all transactions conducted in cash.
The cash dominance is a structural feature that distinguishes Abu Dhabi from Dubai, where mortgage penetration is higher and therefore more sensitive to interest rate movements.
Apartment sales prices in Abu Dhabi continued their upward trajectory in 2025, rising 15.1% year-on-year, accelerating from the 10.9% growth recorded in 2024.
The supply picture in Abu Dhabi is what keeps that price momentum credible.
Approximately 7,400 units were completed in 2025, bringing total supply to around 315,000 units, and while approximately 15,900 units are projected for completion in 2026, recent handover trends suggest actual deliveries are likely to be lower, in the range of 6,500 to 9,000 units, a measured pace expected to support pricing momentum and help prevent near-term market imbalances.
Abu Dhabi's population rose 7.5% in 2024 to about 4.2 million, pushing housing demand ahead of supply, with occupied units increasing 6.6% annually versus 2.8% supply growth since 2022.
That structural undersupply relative to population growth is the cleanest explanation for why Abu Dhabi price indices have not yet shown the deceleration visible in Dubai.
The Emaar earnings results carry one more signal worth isolating.
S&P Global upgraded Emaar to BBB+ and Moody's to Baa1 during the first nine months of 2025, both with a stable outlook.
A developer carrying AED 155 billion in contracted backlog with investment-grade ratings from both major agencies is not a company whose forward revenue is contingent on 2026 spot price performance. The backlog converts to revenue as construction progresses and units are handed over, insulating earnings from the moderation now visible in transaction volumes.
Unlike previous cycles, recent growth has been driven largely by long-term residents and skilled migrants, supporting end-user demand rather than short-term speculation.
That shift in buyer composition is what separates the current deceleration from the corrections of 2009 and 2015, when speculative leverage unwound rapidly and took prices with it.
The Dubai real estate price forecast for the remainder of 2026 resolves to a market in transition rather than reversal. Volume is moderating, price growth is compressing toward mid-single digits in most submarkets, and the divergence between supply-constrained prime locations and oversupplied mid-market corridors is widening. Abu Dhabi is running approximately one cycle behind Dubai, with price acceleration still intact and supply discipline still holding.
