In Q3 2025, 42,000 off-plan transactions closed in Dubai in a single quarter. That one number, drawn from Dubai Land Department data, is the most efficient entry point into a question every GCC investor is now asking: does the off-plan engine that has powered Dubai's market for three consecutive years still generate the returns that justify the structural risk of buying an unbuilt asset, and how does that calculus compare to the listed REIT market sitting across the Gulf in Riyadh?

Start with the transaction architecture.

Dubai's off-plan residential market delivered its strongest performance on record in 2025, with off-plan transactions accounting for 65% of total transaction volume. This marks the third consecutive year that off-plan has led Dubai's residential market, reflecting sustained investor confidence and deepening liquidity across launch-led communities.

The full-year picture confirms the structural dominance:

off-plan properties captured a 62.6% share of total transactions, with 134,623 deals valued at approximately AED 293 billion.

For context on the broader market,

real estate investments in 2025 exceeded AED 680 billion across 258,600 deals, up 29% in value and 20% in number.

The off-plan volume story is compelling, but Dubai real estate investment returns are ultimately measured at the yield line, not the transaction counter.

Dubai real estate continued to offer attractive rental yields, typically ranging between 6% and 8% across major residential communities.

At the upper end,

Dubai offers rental yields of up to 11.2% in select submarkets, with strong capital appreciation layered on top.

The price-to-rent ratio data sharpens the picture further:

Town Square emerges as a standout performer with a 9.4x ratio, meaning purchase prices equal approximately 9.4 years of rental income, while Meydan registers 11.8x and Bluewaters 12.5x despite commanding premium rents.

A 9.4x gross price-to-rent multiple implies a gross yield approaching 10.6%, a figure that would be exceptional in any mature market. The secondary market is also holding:

the secondary market recorded 64,277 resale transactions representing a year-on-year increase of more than 26% in volume, while average prices in the resale segment rose by more than 13%.

The off-plan segment carries a specific risk profile that the yield figures alone do not capture.

Off-plan properties accounted for 61% of all transactions in H1 2025, up from 54% in 2024, driven by flexible payment plans and pre-launch appreciation potential.

The concentration of activity in peripheral corridors is notable:

micro-markets along the Al Khail corridor, including Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubailand, Damac Hills 2, The Valley, and Damac Lagoons, accounted for 55% of total transaction volumes and 56% of all newly launched residential units.

When more than half of all new supply is concentrated in a single development corridor, the delivery risk and future rental competition in that corridor become material variables in any return calculation.

Developers launched over 30,000 new residential units in Q1 2025 alone, more than double the volume from the same period last year.

Supply absorption at that pace is not guaranteed.

Now cross the Gulf. The Saudi REIT market offers a structurally different return profile, one that trades off-plan capital appreciation risk for income visibility and regulatory transparency.

💡 Insight

Dubai real estate continued to offer attractive rental yields, typically ranging between 6% and 8% across major residential communities..

By early 2025, listed Saudi REITs were managing a portfolio of 229 properties, 216 situated in Saudi Arabia and 13 placed abroad.

The asset base is substantial:

by 2024, the value of REIT-owned assets grew to around SAR 30 billion, with leading funds maintaining their commitment to dividend distribution.

Saudi REIT fund performance comparison across the listed universe reveals meaningful dispersion. Riyad REIT reported gross revenue of SAR 275.5 million for 2025,

representing a growth of 4.18% year-on-year.

Derayah REIT, one of the more actively managed funds in the sector,

holds a current portfolio of 24 income-generating real estate assets distributed across 6 cities and 9 real estate sectors in Saudi Arabia, with total asset value of SAR 1.49 billion as of December 31, 2025.

It distributes quarterly dividends of no less than 90% of net profit to unit holders.

The yield comparison between the two markets requires precision.

There are approximately 12 listed Shariah-compliant REITs in Saudi Arabia, yielding 3% to 4% annually, positioned as income-focused instruments.

GIB Capital's May 2025 equity research on the sector noted that

Saudi REITs have better yields than most REIT peers globally.

The rate environment is the key forward variable:

lower financing costs could prompt REITs to raise new debt to expand their portfolios and enhance profitability, while in a lower interest rate environment, REIT dividend yields become more attractive relative to fixed-income instruments, likely drawing yield-seeking capital.

The structural comparison resolves into a question of risk architecture rather than headline yield. Dubai real estate investment returns in the off-plan segment carry developer execution risk, corridor-level oversupply risk, and currency risk for non-AED investors, offset by gross rental yields that can exceed 8% in volume submarkets and capital appreciation that ran at 13% in the secondary market through 2025. Saudi REIT fund performance comparison across the listed sector shows tighter yield ranges of 3% to 4%, but with quarterly income distributions, CMA regulatory oversight, diversified multi-sector portfolios, and no construction delivery risk embedded in the return.

A Kuwait Financial Centre Markaz outlook points to an accelerating phase for GCC real estate markets after robust performance in the second half of 2025, driven by steady non-oil economic expansion, infrastructure investment, and expectations of a more accommodative interest-rate environment.

That macro tailwind benefits both markets, but it compresses the yield premium that has historically made Dubai the more obvious destination for return-seeking capital. The spread between a 3.5% Saudi REIT distribution and an 8% Dubai gross rental yield looks wide until financing costs, service charges, vacancy periods, and off-plan delivery timelines are applied. After those adjustments, the two markets are closer than the headline numbers suggest, and the choice between them is ultimately a question of liquidity preference, income timing, and tolerance for construction-phase exposure.

For informational and research purposes only. Not a solicitation. For questions regarding your specific circumstances, consult a licensed financial advisor.